First of all, thank you for everyone’s input here. Appreciated that.
I am not an analyst nor have I done any detail research of the property market. I made poor decisions over the years and did not buy a property when I should. But I still do not think saying that 人口增加, 離婚數字上升, 地產商高價投地 are solid reasons that property price will go up forever. If this was true, we should not have seen property price dropping like hell during 1997-2003. In the last post “離婚率與細價樓", the article mentioned an interesting fact that 離婚數字上升 could potentially means demand for 細價樓 is ever increasing. The writer therefore see 樓價 will continue to go up, especially for 細價樓. This observation has its merit, all sounds reasonable but if you look at the curve carefully, 離婚上升率 was the steepest during 1997-2003 (when property prices and rent going downhill). Interestingly, 離婚數字 dropped during in 2004-2005 and 2007-2009 (when property prices picked up along with the economy). If 離婚率與樓價 is correlated, we should not have seen such pattern. Demand is only one factor that impact property prices. The market and press have been overstating “demand", it happened in 2007-2009 in the commodities market, price never recover. I am not familiar with economics, not sure partial equilibrium analysis (supply and demand) is fully applicable to current property market, when lots of demand are created by investment needs. In current market, demands can be overstated. Once the market finally expects a drop in property prices (say when US increase interest rates, again we don’t know when), demand may drop (investment needs are gone, young people stay with family knowing that the trend has reversed, economy not as good as now); supply may however go up (investors selling to secure profit, home owners put property up for sale if they cannot afford the mortgage, government land sold these days are ready for living by then).
Who knows? I just hope that HK wouldn’t have to face yet another asset bubble burst. Just my opinion.
想來想去，就是將簡單問題複雜化。要住好啲，又負擔得起，但又唔去做，等樓價跌，同時又要租屋，搬來搬去，得個煩字。我剛去上海，160平方米嘅五年樓在非市中心區，行三個字才有地鐵，索價700萬人仔，連稅就成千萬港元，即建築呎價要成6500港元，貴過好多新界樓，甚至二線市區樓。上海樓嘅保養、生活環境、食物安全及各方面比香港還是有相當距離，所以香港樓還是物有所值。自住，只要合乎長遠需要又負擔得起，何必時刻mark to market呢？美國加息？是有可能的，但美國可以承受多大加幅？十年後港樓跌五成？若計及十年每年3%通漲，則是現值二成都冇，有這個可能嗎？有則是一大機會。今天不具備2003年樓市大跌嘅條件。通縮、亞洲金融危機、歐美昌盛、利息高企、九成業主未供完樓、炒家多、八萬五政策、內地樓超平等等因素，今天都沒有，有的只是政府的覇王硬上弓政策，在無助於增加供應的情況下，強姦了地產業的飯碗。港人港地可以使投資和自住分開，增加本地人的房屋供應，政府又唔大力推行，只是大力收稅，似在旺市中要分一杯羮般。有能力買一層樓自住，是必須嘅
DPZ Blog 
張老師，想請教一下，一年前也問過。我現時家庭收入還算不錯，積蓄也有一點，一直末有置業(等了幾年)。最近在太子何文田九龍塘一帶看房子，都是樓齡較大的(20-30年不等)，實用面積較高的，但銀碼不少(家庭年收入6-7倍)，負擔得來卻也有點兒怕於高位置業，很想問老師意見，現市入市是否不合適? 太子何文田一帶樓齡較高的住宅老師如何評價保本價值?
黃先生，估計你家庭年收入百多至二百萬。後輩我有少少意見，或可參考。
以等巴士作個比喻，等了二十分鍾巴士也不來，是否要等下去？如果估計巴士快來，應該等下去吧，現在放棄，之前不是白等了？當然如果你有錢，隨時可乘的士。但為何一開始不選乘的士？因為當初有其他考慮吧。
如果兩年後只需4-5年家庭收入買入你現時心儀的單位, 我一定會等. 試試跟那業主先租那單位兩年, 扣除租金,兩年後或可以較低價買入. 你還可跟業主商量, 你出錢作自己心儀裝修, 租金減下部份,有些業主也樂意接受。
張化橋:傻瓜看重慶農商銀行
@ 2013-03-28 01:39:11
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_50c88c400101ii8b.html
重慶農商銀行（3618HK）公佈了2012年的業績。午餐會上，我發表了一番跟大家有點不同的意見，某大佬聽進去了，拿起電話給他的經紀人: 喂?
我很看好這家銀行，原因如下。
(1) 不太可能倒閉。
(2) 確實有壞帳風險，但是哪個行業沒有呢？出了大問題的話，政府會拯救它，可能不會拯救別的行業的企業。
(3) 雖然是家小銀行，但是憑著它400億港元的市值，也算得上一家大型上市企業。
(4)它是一家地方性銀行，沒錯。但這又有什麼不好？難道到處撒胡椒麵，沒有一個核心市場就好嗎？重慶雖小，也有33個縣，國土面積幾乎趕上匈牙利，人口多兩倍，你還不滿足？
(5) 過去兩年，我在重慶調研, 和投資小貸公司，經常碰到農商銀行的人。在重慶，你競爭不過他們。
(6) 別看分析師定的12個月目標價格。我們看四年或者五年。如果不行,六年。它的利潤可能會比2012年翻一番。如果四年，五年，或者六年裡股價一直不漲，那麼，到時候由於利潤翻番，市盈率就會從現在的6倍變成3倍。假定它的派息比例不變，到時候它的息率就會從2012年的5％變成10％。它的市淨率就會變成0.4左右。
這種情況可能出現嗎？當然可能。什麼都可能。不過概率不大。也就是說，在四到六年內，它的股價非漲不可。我估計它會翻一番有餘。這個回報率也相當不錯啊!你等得起：你一邊等，一邊收到5％以上的息率(每年)。還不夠嗎？
(7) 重慶農商銀行也許不是最好的銀行。不過，確實已經相當好！
他很可能是對的！我相信這也適用於998中信銀行。
未來十年樓價跌50%？現在市區二手樓價實用平均$10,000元呎，十年後即$5,000元呎，札鐵工人日薪$1,700元，其它工種？材料加燈油火蠟，每呎地成本要$3,000元呎，投幅地$2,000元呎先至平手，重係十年後價錢？不敢想像。
超級地產霸權新地$11,000呎住宅地，$7,000幾元酒店地，剛剛投得，佢哋會做蝕本生意？600呎實用面積樓價600萬，月租22,000元，就算10年後跌到300萬，你都交佐$2,640,000租，咁咪得個吉？
租樓住沒有歸屬感，還是買樓安定些，我有個朋友租日出康城全新樓住，真係全新裝修，業主都係簽2年死約，同準許走時可免拆固定裝飾，講到錢，冇皇帝 !
Tommy 兄, 你其實做了一個假設, 就是人工及建築材料也是只升不跌. 地産商也只是公司. 公司有賺有蝕. 其實新地當年賣维景灣畔一期時也是低於地價賣的! 世上不存在永賺不賠的公司的.
學子老弟，香港未來5年起樓如火如荼，人手唔夠，建造業重要開班訓練人材，人工點會跌，政府地皮投標唔到價唔賣，重話明不會賤賣土地，樓價點會跌，地產霸權實力雄厚，的樓分分鐘擺3，5，7年，君臨天下，凱旋門唔到價唔賣，重有貨，華懋咪係版囉，沙田果楂樓賣佐廿幾年重賣緊，冇得平。
2手樓業主，賣樓跟大勢，除非等錢救命急用，點會平買，一係放租，一係養小強，你地奈何，除非中國打仗波及香港，5折平售。
俾個買樓錦囊給準置業朋友：
1大重點：chuck清楚心儀單位係咪凶宅，果層樓有冇凶宅。
(德福5屍全層匯豐估唔到價，康怡第一邪宅，全層，上一層，下一層都估唔到價，可上匯豐估價綱站chuck下，冇吹水)。
4大要訣：
1，空氣清新
2，環境寧靜
3，陽光普照
4，番工方便
好似簡單，其實難度幾高架 !
學子兄, 老老實實, 未來供應極嚴重斷層, 樓價想升少D都好困難, 仲話跌?
樓賣佐買唔翻, 請勿再誤己誤人!
您的意見是什麼？
會計仔: 離婚率與細價樓, 細價樓由今日(15-3-2013)升到去年尾!
15th Mar 2013 | 財經 | (1190 Reads)
http://accountboyhk.mysinablog.com/index.php?op=ViewArticle&articleId=3986831
First of all, thank you for everyone’s input here. Appreciated that.
I am not an analyst nor have I done any detail research of the property market. I made poor decisions over the years and did not buy a property when I should. But I still do not think saying that 人口增加, 離婚數字上升, 地產商高價投地 are solid reasons that property price will go up forever. If this was true, we should not have seen property price dropping like hell during 1997-2003. In the last post “離婚率與細價樓", the article mentioned an interesting fact that 離婚數字上升 could potentially means demand for 細價樓 is ever increasing. The writer therefore see 樓價 will continue to go up, especially for 細價樓. This observation has its merit, all sounds reasonable but if you look at the curve carefully, 離婚上升率 was the steepest during 1997-2003 (when property prices and rent going downhill). Interestingly, 離婚數字 dropped during in 2004-2005 and 2007-2009 (when property prices picked up along with the economy). If 離婚率與樓價 is correlated, we should not have seen such pattern. Demand is only one factor that impact property prices. The market and press have been overstating “demand", it happened in 2007-2009 in the commodities market, price never recover. I am not familiar with economics, not sure partial equilibrium analysis (supply and demand) is fully applicable to current property market, when lots of demand are created by investment needs. In current market, demands can be overstated. Once the market finally expects a drop in property prices (say when US increase interest rates, again we don’t know when), demand may drop (investment needs are gone, young people stay with family knowing that the trend has reversed, economy not as good as now); supply may however go up (investors selling to secure profit, home owners put property up for sale if they cannot afford the mortgage, government land sold these days are ready for living by then).
Who knows? I just hope that HK wouldn’t have to face yet another asset bubble burst. Just my opinion.
想來想去，就是將簡單問題複雜化。要住好啲，又負擔得起，但又唔去做，等樓價跌，同時又要租屋，搬來搬去，得個煩字。我剛去上海，160平方米嘅五年樓在非市中心區，行三個字才有地鐵，索價700萬人仔，連稅就成千萬港元，即建築呎價要成6500港元，貴過好多新界樓，甚至二線市區樓。上海樓嘅保養、生活環境、食物安全及各方面比香港還是有相當距離，所以香港樓還是物有所值。自住，只要合乎長遠需要又負擔得起，何必時刻mark to market呢？美國加息？是有可能的，但美國可以承受多大加幅？十年後港樓跌五成？若計及十年每年3%通漲，則是現值二成都冇，有這個可能嗎？有則是一大機會。今天不具備2003年樓市大跌嘅條件。通縮、亞洲金融危機、歐美昌盛、利息高企、九成業主未供完樓、炒家多、八萬五政策、內地樓超平等等因素，今天都沒有，有的只是政府的覇王硬上弓政策，在無助於增加供應的情況下，強姦了地產業的飯碗。港人港地可以使投資和自住分開，增加本地人的房屋供應，政府又唔大力推行，只是大力收稅，似在旺市中要分一杯羮般。有能力買一層樓自住，是必須嘅
香港人買樓同買股票同一心理，怕蝕底，跌市時唔敢買，驚繼續跌，升近時又唔敢買，點知係咪陷阱，入佐市整個回馬槍咪大鑊，升到膨膨聲又忍唔住，入 ! 人人賺錢我冇份咪好蝕底？後果…………當然自負。
炒股票小弟冇炒好耐，心力負荷唔到，而家獨孤求敗，手頭剩番一隻2號仔，長線收息，升到$70元考慮估第一注，因上一次到頂係$75元。
買樓都係講番舊野，你需要住而負擔得起，就算跌到阿媽都唔認得，你都頂得順，入 ! 下下等撈底，幾時到底？幾錢到底？人生有幾多個年等？你估我地背脊有個殼？
小弟第一次置業時，除佐向銀行度水，重要靠至愛親朋幫手，每月出糧時……………唉 ! 捱到金晴火眼，但當你擁有自己物業，新居入伙，企係窗前向外望，果種滿足感 ! 開心感 ! 值得捱。