股市隨筆

        今天共有四篇網誌,標題是「股市隨筆」,「生活情趣」,「回應網友 – Lemon」及「黃金法則 76條 ( 65 )」。

        昨天午後上證指數急速提升,全日升了27點,恒指跟隨,午後倒升,以升203點收市,成交650億。

        調升存款準備金率基本上是凍結在同期新增的貨幣流通量,不影響己有貨幣流通,市場漸漸適應,對大銀行來說存款基數大,貸存比本來就沒有用盡,提升存款準備金率對它們影響更小,祇是誰都不知道駱駝背上揹了很多稻草,似乎駱駝仍很精神,那最後一根稻草到底在哪裡?

        現在最大的不確定性是到下月底,聯儲局停止QE2以後美債債息會否大幅上揚?如果大幅上揚,例如升1厘,則後果堪慮,也許聯儲局有藉口再做QE3,那又會引發美元大跌,市場震蕩。不過直至現在美債並未出現恐慌拋售,希望能平安渡過這一關。

        如果6月後美債穩定,今年下半年香港股市可望向好。

4 responses to “股市隨筆

  1. 先生,可否把美元、美債、 QE、股市之間的相互關係和影響作一篇專文介紹?感覺之間關係緊密,但又想不太明白,謝謝先生!

  2. 先生能請問一下你對內房股的意見嗎? 投資價值如何? 大陸會否打殘內房股呢? 本人鍾情瑞安(272), 以前親身見過佢地上海的樓,同新天地,真係好靚,272 持有大量XX天地,位處旺區且各有其特色, 可惜上市以來股價表現差到不得了, 很失望, 但卻仍對佢品牌好有信心, 我認為瑞專注高檔物業發展, 與保障房是完全兩樣野, 大陸有錢人咁多, 個個都想住靚樓, 已預左多持有至少3年, 我睇好佢將來, 唔知先生點睇內房發展? 希望張老師有時間可以比少少意見.

  3. Hi, 張老師

    I have read a few articles about LTE (4G) which I believe China Mobile is going to use a similar technology to implement its 4G. I would like to share some of my thoughts here. Sorry for typing in English.

    The 3G and 4G articles I read from US, HK and China analysts always only emphasize on comparing the maximum bandwidth of 3G and 4G. We always assume that a faster bandwidth always guarantee a better web browsing experience. It is not totally correct. Network ‘latency’ also pays an important role.

    A real life example:
    When we use the same 100Mbps connection (e.g. HK bb100) at home, we do notice the speed difference between downloading from a local HK website and downloading from a remote US website. It is because the latency between our HK home to the remote US website is much longer.

    Another real life example:
    My customer at one point asked me, “Hey M, we have just increased our office outgoing bandwidth from 10Mbps to 100Mbps but it does not really improve the performance when reaching out to the Japan office from our US HQ."…My answer was simple, “It does not matter if you use an airbus A380 or A320 to transport things between US and Japan. Your limitation is not the size of your plane. It is the physical distance that limited your speed".

    When using a cell phone, we usually do web browsing instead of big file download and low latency is very important for web browsing.

    After long and boring tech talks, lets come back to LTE. LTE does not only increase the bandwidth. More importantly, it promises to reduce the latency. It seems the big firm’s analysts have ever mentioned this important point.

    Hence, in LTE, reduced latency is the one that really matters the most and improves end-user’s browsing experience. The increased bandwidth is more to the carrier benefits since the per bit cost is going to be lower. The air is not free. If the carrier can pump more data into the air with newer technology, the carrier is going to benefit.

    Anyhow, the above is only from a pure technical perspective. For stock investment, it is mostly affected by the marketing strategy and the timing of the China Mobile 4G deployment.

  4. 先生,可否把美元、美債、 QE、股市之間的相互關係和影響作一篇專文介紹?感覺之間關係緊密,但又想不太明白,謝謝先生!

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