股市隨筆

        今天共有兩篇網誌,標題是「股市隨筆」及「塔木德 ( 20 )」。

        昨天恒指跌479點,成交1030億。上證指數跌56點,成交1587億。

        這一次從近期高峰25000點計起,下跌大約1800點,以指數計不足10%,內銀股及內房股跌幅實際更大一些,美元繼續走強,商品價格下跌。

        股市超買,總是要調整一下,美元則超賣,回彈一下是在市場意料之中,無論QE2有或沒有,這一次調整都是自然會來的。

        如以陰謀論的角度看,等著入貨的外資,總也要利用藉口推低股市,美元轉強及內地可能收緊銀根正是現成的藉口。

        小投資者如果在恒指24000點以上沒有沽貨的,暫時也不必沽了,觀望一下。像昨天這樣一天跌幾百點的情形也許再會發生一次,或兩次,但眼下並無危機,調整過後大市仍會上升。

        愛爾蘭的債務危機,祇有區區幾百億,市場利用來炒作美元上升的藉口。中國的銀行房貸,也沒有停止,市場傳言全年額度已用完,也被銀行否認了。自由市場就有很多真真假假的消息,其實現在並無危機,也不需恐慌。

        現在唯一縣疑的就是中央會否嚴厲抽緊銀根?合理的推想是不會,一切財政政策大前提都不能損害增長,不過政策透明度不夠,市場波動就會更大。

4 responses to “股市隨筆

  1. Thanks for your review. It really helps. But I think it is not time to buy stocks yet. A shares will probably go low further next week and Hang Seng index will inevitably go down further to about 22,500 or lower, but with some support. As you said, people would not be willing to sell further. The rise yesterday, both H and A shares, have seen a low transaction volume. The recovery will take some time and Christmas will be quiet for the market. Then, I am positive that Hang Seng index will jump to as high as 28,000 in 2011. Once then, to be confirm, but investors will need to very careful. Who knows what could happen?

    The market is becoming more and more unpredictable these days!

  2. 我覺得加息將是一個小的影響,人民幣值的增加,必更促進股價~

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