今天共有兩篇網誌,標題是「股市隨筆」及「古文欣賞 ( 15 )」。
昨天A股繼續調整,上證指數跌75點,報3019點。大陸網站上報導,1月份迄今,銀行信貸已達1.45萬億,央行指令許多城市,多家銀行暫停貸款,並且要求銀行每天上報數據。央行用盡「市場手段」又是增發票據,又是上調準備金率,但都無法遏制信貸快速增加。現在祇能用「行政指令」,鐵腕手段來壓制信貸。房貸市場明顯抽緊,連帶電器零售店,汽車分銷商都收緊信貸。現在要等多幾天,看二月份信貸是否全面恢復。如果一如央行計劃,2010年全年信貸7.5萬億,每月均衡發放,則每月為6千多億,比去年平均數每月少1000億,究竟會對市場產生多大的影響,相信無人知道,總之謹慎為上。
大市跌要跟隨沽出股票,我又沽出了20%的內銀股轉持現金,現在內銀股祇佔總投資資產的30%左右。這一次的調整浪源頭是中國央行收緊銀根,央行也沒有說明要見到什麼樣的數據它才會放鬆銀根,祇能耐心觀望。
港股大跌也許也跟「五區總辭」的消息也有關。市場不喜歡任何不確定因素,幾位議員,在茶杯中攪出風波,也許打響知名度是他們的最大考慮。他們的機會成本很低,但整個香港社會付出的成本很高。
Don’t you know they have sacrificed a lot for this resignation? They were so courageous and respectable. We want referendum on the election of our chief executive and lagislators. It is so sad that when a city’s GDP per capita reaches $30,000, people still only think about making more money but not demanding for the true democracy and freedom.I love my government only if it’s "for the people, by the people and to the people". anyone who really love our country, our HK and our people should support the univeral suffrage!So our first step will be to support our five brave legislators with our vote!Please tell me you not only care about yourself, whom I suppose living in a nice house and having big fortune, but also those people who are at the very bottom of the society and exploited by the unjust and corrupted authority. The governance power should be given by the people, not from the single dictatorial ruling party.Again, opportunity cost is a relative concept. 1000 dollars opportunity cost to you is nothing, but it may mean a lot to some other people. I also don’t see there is a big opportunity cost costed by their action to the HK society. Actually, I have quite an opposite view on that. If they can achieve their goal, which will be the referendum, then it will be a big gain for HK in terms of the future growth of our economy. We will expect more respect and applause coming from our international society. The world will have a solid confidence in the "one country, two systems" policy. And HK will be better off! Don’t be afriad of pissing off the central government. There are many people who are quite liberal in the communist party as far as I know. They will show tolerance to HK because they don’t want to scare off Taiwan and the international investors. Step up, HK people!