貼市評論

        最近市場上有關匯豐銀行及中國銀行的消息和評論比較多,也談一談我的看法。   
        
        先說匯豐。匯豐是一家令香港人引以為榮的企業,許多港人也是靠長揸匯豐而賺到了錢。但自2000年以後,匯豐不單止業務停滯不前,在現任總裁葛霖的領導下,更似乎有一種公司在變質的味道。上半年的業績,美國業務出了大問題,總公司甚至到要埋單結數時才知道,出了那麼大的虧蝕,把責任推在美國匯豐融資的總裁身上,有了替罪羔羊,炒了魷魚,是不是就沒有問題了?當時出中期業績,撇賬那麼大,整個公司仍有盈餘,不知道挖了哪一塊隱藏盈利來填補虧損,年報沒有交代,很有粉飾業績的嫌疑,這一次的年結,又將在中國平安及中國交通的盈利搬了出來,賬是很好看,但這些都是一次性的利潤,在吃老本,現在美國融資仍揸住480億美元的次按資產,到底要撇多少數?還有老本可以吃嗎?總之令投資者感覺很不好,港人揸住匯豐的人不少,是不是值得多考慮一下?
 
        中國銀行我在前星期的大跌市中進了不少貨,今天翻查了一下,我進了6,660,000股,不算多也不算少了。星期一爆出中銀揸住了97億美元有抵押債券的消息,有些大行以損失全額或損失50%的價值來計,說它明年的盈利全部泡湯了,我的感覺,這些分析言過其實了。中銀的高層,抱住的心態一定是不求有功但求無過,如果投資成功,他們本人沒有得益。如果投資失誤,他們個人是要負責的,所以絕對不會投資在Aa級以下的債券。而Aa級的有抵押債券,損失大約在2 – 5%之間,如果聯儲局減息,這些債券還可能更值錢一些。因此對中銀投資債券損失嚴重的分析,可能是太武斷了,考慮到中銀在資金自由香港行的特殊地位,我決定保留手上的中銀,資金自由行的佣金是2.5%,再有其它的衍生利益,中銀將來在此業務上的得益很難計算。
 

3 responses to “貼市評論

  1. Mr DPZ, What is your mentioned is Bank of China (Hong Kong) or her mother (3988).  Can you clarify it?Regards / Kevin LawBy the way, Mr DPZ, I read your two books 2 years ago which is very good.  In fact I am a Hong Kong born Chinese and never experienced the government under Mr Mao.  At that time, I was working in Shenzhen.  I could not understand local people thinking.  After reading your books, I understand my way of thinking of Chinese people was wrong.   These two I bought were rather by chance.  I read them within a week and no sleep at nights.   The experience that I gain how bad those Chinese people under the control of Mr Mao.  In the book, you mentioned that your wife is very beauty.  I was not think so.  But when I visit your blog.  I see a article & download it and belive by that time how you described your wife is true.  Many moment you mentioned in these book is still fresh in my memory.  The last moment that you got to Hong Kong is rather exciting.   When I complete 2 books, I think you may write the rest how you work in Hong Kong and then went to Canada.  However, I still remember that you have liver illness.  I was worry that you cannot write the book.   One day, I read EJ that you still alive and write an investment book.  I then went to most of bookshop and could not find.   One day, I saw your book and understand you have blog and then I start to read your blog everyday.  I do gain a lot understanding from your blog.  Thank you.  Will you consider to write your book when you come to HK and then become a good fortune?  Understand you had replaced your liver.  If you can handle it, I am please to help.Your new loyal reader!   Kevin Law

  2. 你所指的中國銀行是 中國的,還是中國銀行(香港)的?謝!

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